GlobalData Research: Trump’s Second Term Could Delay Tourism Recovery in US

GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company has said that a Biden presidency could be more fruitful for the tourism industry to recover in the US.

GlobalData has observed a slowdown of inbound tourism to the US during President Donald Trump’s years in office

Since his 2016 win, a 2.1-percentage-point slowdown in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of international tourism in the US has been recorded.

Apart from this, the impact of COVID-19 leaves the tourism industry in the US little chance for a speedy recovery. 

Ralph Hollister, Travel and Tourism analyst, GlobalData, said, “While causation cannot be proved, there is a correlation between President Trump’s first term and a slowdown in international visitation, which should increase apprehension in the US tourism sector in the current election regarding how swiftly recovery will be realized during and post-pandemic.”

“In 2017, global international tourist arrivals were growing at a rapid rate and the value of the US dollar was in decline. These two factors should have meant near-record-breaking international tourism growth in 2017 and the following years – but this was not the case. According to GlobalData, from 2016 to 2019, international arrivals to the US increased at a sluggish compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1 percent. By way of comparison, from 2013 to 2016, they grew at a much higher CAGR of 3.1 percent,” Hollister added.

Global Data research shows how travel has been massively impacted in the US

The data reveals that international arrivals to the US are now predicted to see a staggering year-on-year decrease of 75 percent in 2020 largely due to the pandemic.

UNWTO, Expedia, Tourism Recovery

“There are several reasons why a second term for President Trump could prolong tourism recovery in the US, ranging from negative views on immigration policies to bans on individuals entering the US.”

“A significant ongoing reason is the China-US trade war. In recent years, the rapidly increasing spending power of Chinese travellers has put them at the front of many nations’ tourism strategies-given the large numbers of high-yield tourists. President Trump’s aggressive approach to China has impacted arrivals from this valuable source market. According to GlobalData, between 2013 and 2016, Chinese arrivals to the US grew at a rapid CAGR of 18.1 percent. From 2016 to 2019, arrivals dropped at a CARC of 2.5 percent,” said Hollister.

China will continue to be a major factor.

“This trend of Chinese arrivals gradually dropping could continue beyond the pandemic should President Trump’s strained relationship with China show no sign of improving during a potential second term,” concluded Hollister.

Also Read: Trump Prevents Chinese Airlines from Entering the US


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