New research by Cirium, global aviation and air travel data and analytics company, shows that the world will need £2.1 trillion (US$2.8 trillion) worth of new aircraft over the next 20 years. This huge spend is predicted despite the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reducing new aircraft deliveries during 2020.
This new report predicts that 43,315 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered between 2020 and 2039. These numbers represent an eight percent drop compared to the 20-year outlook in the 2019 Cirium Fleet Forecast and includes some 4,600 fewer deliveries in the next decade.
COVID-19 has led to a dramatic reduction in global traffic
Chris Seymour, Ascend by Cirium head of market analysis, said: “Following ten consecutive years of uninterrupted demand growth, the 2020 Covid-19 crisis has led to a dramatic reduction in global traffic and record industry losses. Worldwide deliveries during 2020 are expected to be 45 per cent lower than in 2019. However, the numbers will gradually recover and surpass the previous peak (in 2018) during 2025, assuming traffic bounces back as predicted.”
Further, flying hours will also fall by 45 per cent in 2020 to 94 million, compared to 170 million in 2019. The total CO2 emissions are likely to fall by half as more fuel-efficient aircraft have been used this year. Markets in Asia will be the major growth engine for the global aviation industry during the next two decades. China is expected to be the biggest single destination for new commercial and passenger aircraft deliveries between 2020 and 2039, with a 22 per cent share.